Why the prediction markets often fail

HomeInvestingStocksMark HulbertMark HulbertBig traders don’t always know bestUpdated July 13, 2026, 9:30 a.m. ET Photo: Getty ImagesThere is a 19% probability that the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA will eclipse 59,000 at some point between now and the end of the year, according to a contract that trades on the Kalshi prediction market.That represents a 23% gain over the DJIA’s current level.