Why MS NOW rates the Texas Senate race a toss-up

Since the dust settled on the Texas primaries — including a late May runoff — the Senate race there has looked competitive. Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton have been close in the polls, but Texas’ recent electoral history led us to give the GOP the edge for most of the summer, even with Paxton being a weaker nominee than the incumbent he ousted in the primary with President Donald Trump’s help, Sen. John Cornyn. Now, as Labor Day marks the unofficial start of campaign season, it’s clear that Texas has become a top-tier battleground. A worsening political environment for Republicans, confirmatory polling data and an emerging fundraising picture are impossible to ignore. Texas is truly a toss-up. The polling A series of recent polls confi