Why Did Pollsters Get Michigan And Wisconsin Primaries So Wrong?

August 13, 2026 5:08 PM ET Polling for races in Michigan and Wisconsin did not accurately reflect the actual election results due to open primaries and the willingness of further-left candidates’ bases to be surveyed, pollsters said. Surveys indicated that Democratic Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Democratic Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate Francesca Hong held double-digit leads ahead of their primaries, although El-Sayed narrowly won his race and Hong lost. Pollsters stated it was difficult to properly conduct surveys in these states because of their open primaries, while supporters of further-left candidates are more enthusiastic and willing to participate in polls. An Emerson College Polling/WLNS/WOODTV survey, a Mitchell Research & Communications poll and other polls indic