UniCredit expects Romania's economic recovery and monetary easing no sooner than 2027

13 July 2026 UniCredit Bank expects Romania's economy to remain broadly stagnant in 2026 before recovering more meaningfully in 2027, while the National Bank of Romania (BNR) is seen delaying monetary easing until the second half of next year in line with the inflation trajectory, according to the bank's latest Quarterly Update. The bank forecasts Romania's GDP growth at just 0.2% in 2026, followed by an acceleration to 2.3% in 2027, as the impact of fiscal consolidation gradually fades. UniCredit expects the BNR to keep monetary policy restrictive over the coming year, with the first interest rate cuts likely only in the second half of 2027. The bank projects cumulative easing of just 50 basis points by the end of 2027. Across Central and Eastern Europe, UniCredit expects most economies t