Romania’s CFA macroeconomic confidence index rises on steady sovereign rating

26 August 2026 Romania’s Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator compiled by the CFA Romania Association increased by 6.7 points to 44.2 in July, with confidence improving after rating agencies confirmed the country’s investment-grade status. Despite the stronger sentiment, CFA analysts expect the economy to stagnate in 2026, with the risk of recession remaining elevated. The current conditions indicator rose by 8.1 points to 36.9, while the expectations indicator increased by 6.1 points to 47.9. The association said the improvement in confidence was accompanied by a significant decline in inflation expectations, as well as more favourable expectations for the exchange rate and interest rates. The average inflation expectation for the next 12 months, to August 2027, fell to 6.32%. Some 90% of s