Romania’s central bank raises year-end inflation forecast to 6.1%

14 August 2026 The National Bank of Romania (BNR) in its August 13 quarterly Inflation Report raised its forecast for end-2026 inflation by 0.6 percentage points to 6.1%, as governor Mugur Isărescu said the economy remained below potential amid fiscal consolidation and supply-side shocks. The new forecast, presented by Isărescu, puts inflation further above BNR's previous projection of 5.5%. BNR now expects inflation to return to its 2.5% +/-1pp target range only in the fourth quarter of 2027. The central bank's inflation report points to the lingering effects of fiscal consolidation measures introduced in 2025 and early 2026, alongside supply shocks affecting energy prices. The report cites the US-Iran war and the extreme decline in Danube water levels among factors pushing up the prices