09 July 2026 On July 8, Romania’s central bank (BNR), in line with expectations and based on the assessments and data currently available, and amid very high uncertainty, kept the policy rate at 6.5%. The balanced mix of macroeconomic policies and the implementation of structural reforms, including through the use of European funds, to stimulate long-term growth potential are essential for macroeconomic stability and strengthening the capacity of the Romanian economy to cope with adverse developments, BNR warned. Analysts expect no rate change for nearly an entire year. Erste Group expects the key rate to remain at 6.50% until May 2027 (when rate cuts become likely amid headline inflation dropping below the policy rate). “Rate hikes appear unlikely in a weak economy operating with a negati