The Iran war has divided the global outlook into two tracks: A modest slowdown if the conflict ends soon or a severe hit, with some economies near recession, if it drags on and the disruption deepens. Why it matters: Either path leaves the global economy worse off than before the war, with slower growth and hotter inflation. The scenarios determine the scale of the damage. It's the latest reminder of how a single chokepoint can upend the world economy, the same supply-side dynamic behind most