NBA over/under predictions: Win totals and best unders for 2026-27 season, including Wizards, Pacers, and Mavs

One of the most fun annual traditions of the NBA preseason is to try and beat the Vegas prognosticators at their own game. Win totals for all 30 teams have already been released across betting sites, and some lines look much softer than others. Season win totals are one of the easier futures markets to beat. Because funds are locked up for a full season and limits are far lower than on single games, casual bettors are competing more with each other than the pros. You're not going to get rich, but betting on these can be a fun way to make some beer money. Using my win probability model and my own subjective analysis, here are the teams that I believe Vegas is too high on. In Part Two of this series, I will hit who Vegas is too low on.MORE: Are the Sixers a title threat with LeBron James?NBA