Ahead of this week's NATO summit, expect public praise for Trump from Secretary General Rutte over rising European defense spending, but private distrust runs deep—Europeans increasingly doubt US commitment to Article 5. This is pushing Europe toward defense autonomy (a 5-10 year project), while relying on Ukraine holding out and continued US arms sales as stopgaps. Zelensky will court Trump by framing Ukraine as winning. Meanwhile, Turkey emerges as a key defense partner, with Erdoğan and Trump