ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 16, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW: The Ukrainian government approved a series of personnel changes in the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed an interim defense minister on July 16. Ukraine’s drone strike campaign aimed at denying Russia the ability to sustain logistics and transport fuel to occupied Crimea is likely further degrading Russia’s already outstretched air defenses and imposing new protection dilemmas. Russia is reportedly turning to India for additional gasoline supplies as Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign continues to reduce Russian oil refining capacity. Russian elites are reportedly moving money abroad to protect their financial assets from Russian economic risk and the Kremlin’s effort to nationalize private assets. Polish auth