ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 15, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW: Russian forces are resuming their strike campaign against Ukrainian port infrastructure along the Black Sea coast. The Russian strikes likely aim to degrade the Ukrainian economy and reduce Ukraine’s export capacity. The Russian strikes are likely also a response to Ukraine’s recent strike campaign against Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea, but such Russian strike tactics are not new. Russia appears to be struggling to deliver its rising seaborne crude oil exports as Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign is reducing Russia’s refining capacity. Polish and Baltic officials continue to report that Russia may be planning a false flag attack against NATO. Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov confirmed on July 15 that he is stepping down from