ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 14, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW: Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) recruitment programs are reportedly failing to compensate for the rising Russian casualty rate amid costly advances in Ukraine. The Coalition of the Willing reaffirmed the necessity that Ukraine receive binding security guarantees as part of a larger peace plan and reiterated the members’ commitment to participate in peace negotiations. The Kremlin continues to reject security guarantees for Ukraine and seeks to deny European participation in peace negotiations on Ukraine. Ukraine’s Western partners continue efforts to boost Ukraine’s air defense umbrella, particularly to combat Russian ballistic missiles. France and Italy granted Ukraine licenses to produce Franco-Italian glide bombs and French SCALP missiles in Ukraine, as Ukr