ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 12, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW: Ukrainian forces have struck 90 Russian oil tankers in the Sea of Azov since July 6 as part of their intensified campaign to isolate occupied Crimea. Ukraine’s successful long- and intermediate-range strike campaigns continue to fuel Russian milblogger concerns about Russia’s inadequate air defense capabilities and the Kremlin’s poor decision-making that have left Russia and occupied Ukraine vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced forthcoming changes to the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers, including the reassignment of the current prime minister, Yulia Svyrydenko. Russian forces launched nine Kh-59/69 guided cruise missiles, four Kh-31 anti-radar missiles, and 115 drones against Ukraine overnight. Russian forces recently