Key Takeaways from the ISW: The Russian oil refining industry is failing to meet the rising domestic gasoline demand as the Ukrainian long-range strike campaign continues to degrade Russia’s oil refining capacity. A Russian state-owned polling institution indicated that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval ratings continued to fall in early July 2026 after a sharp decline at the end of June 2026. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski confirmed recent US warnings that Russia might be planning to conduct provocations against unspecified NATO states. Ukrainian forces conducted long-range strikes against Russian energy infrastructure in Russia on the night of July 9 to 10. Russian forces launched 137 drones against Ukraine overnight. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Oleksan