ING sees clearer signs of macro rebalancing in Romania, but rating still at risk

06 August 2026 ING Bank, in a research update, pictures a quite optimistic macroeconomic scenario with growth rebounding to 2.3% next year from a 0.5% contraction in 2026, fiscal consolidation in line with plans this year and “reasonable chances” of close to full Resilience Facility money absorption despite implementation risks. However, the bank’s analysts caution that the 2026 budget consolidation remains only a step in the right direction and consistent execution is still key. The prolonged interim government situation adds uncertainty around policy continuity, reform implementation and Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) milestones, while rating downgrade risks remain important as growth, fiscal and political stability remain under close scrutiny, the research update reads. Amid a b