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✦ 75✓ Factual
I built a maths model to simulate the World Cup a million times. Find out your team’s chances
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A data scientist explains a statistical model used to simulate the 2026 FIFA World Cup one million times to predict tournament outcomes and individual team probabilities of advancement.
I built a maths model to simulate the World Cup a million times. Find out your team’s chances
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is one of the most watched events of the international sports calendar, and fans from across the globe will be trying to predict how far their team will go.
I’m a data scientist and in an attempt to forecast the eventual tournament winner, semi-finalists and teams’ chances of progressing through the group stages, I built a model to predict how the World Cup may unfold.
Here’s how I did it and what my model predicted.
Lessons from recent history
For this World Cup, the tr
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