With a fragile US-Iran ceasefire barely holding, the Strait of Hormuz still blockaded, and all eyes on the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting, investors are embracing a new market narrative: “Nacho”. The acronym – short for “Not a chance Hormuz opens” – reflects a growing bet on prolonged gridlock and high oil prices. This marks a sharp pivot from last year’s dominant trade tactic, “Taco” – “Trump always chickens out”, which was born in the chaos of Trump’s tariff blitz and relied on the assumption that.