As Super Typhoon Bavi churns towards Taiwan and eastern mainland China, they offer a chilling timely reminder that the world needs to brace for impending disasters as the climate system nears a tipping point. For Benjamin Horton, the newly minted recipient of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society Axford Medal – the most prestigious honour in Asian climate and earth science – the world has entered a period of volatility in which historical weather patterns are no longer a reliable guide to future.